Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings lineup advice for Thursday s MLB games

Source Padres nearing deal for Marlins Arraez

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Don't bet against Verlander

What can't Houston Astros RHP Justin Verlander achieve? Shoulder trouble kept the future Hall of Famer on the injured list until last week, when he made his season debut with six innings of two-run ball to beat the lowly Nationals. On Thursday, Verlander heads to Wrigley Field to face the more formidable Cubs. Verlander has made two starts in the historic ballpark, winning both, with a 1.98 ERA. It is one of four active ballparks in which he boasts a sub-2.00 ERA.

Verlander, 41, (probably) can't pitch forever, but there is little indication the end is nigh. He is rostered in "only" 80.6% of ESPN standard leagues, a direct result of his missing weeks with the shoulder ailment. The Astros -- and fantasy managers -- likely expected Verlander to miss more time. Fantasy managers are generally an impatient lot, and if Verlander was out until May, many figured it could be someone else's problem. They may have also ignored the potential for a top-20 fantasy campaign.

Some looked at Verlander's work in 2023 for the Mets and Astros as indication he was a risky investment this season, especially entering spring training with a balky shoulder. After all, the version of Verlander who won the 2022 AL Cy Young Award with the Astros (18-4, 1.75 ERA, 0.82 WHIP) regressed last season, with a lesser strikeout rate and higher walk and home run rates. He still fashioned a 3.22 ERA over 27 starts.

Most Cubs have never faced Verlander, which would seem to favor the hurler. C Yan Gomes is the only one to bat against him more than 10 times, posting a .660 OPS. 1B/OF Cody Bellinger is 1-for-8 against Verlander with six strikeouts. SS Dansby Swanson is hitless in three at-bats. Does it matter? Even past the age of 40 and with a compromised shoulder, it seems wrong to assume Verlander will pitch poorly, perhaps ever, regardless of foe and venue.

Everything else you need to know for Thursday Ten games grace the schedule, with nine of them starting before traditional dinner time on the East Coast. Milwaukee Brewers-Pittsburgh Pirates gets things going at 12:35 p.m. ET, with team aces Freddy Peralta and Mitch Keller meeting. Peralta is one of the top pitchers in fantasy, boasting a 1.90 ERA and an MLB-leading 36.7% strikeout rate. Keller, however, has a 4.80 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, and he walked four Red Sox batters in his most recent outing. Keller isn't a fantasy ace, but investors expect more from the veteran that struck out 210 last season. Since Keller is 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA lifetime versus the Brewers, improvement may have to wait until May. Texas Rangers LHP Andrew Heaney may be pitching for his rotation spot against the Mariners. Heaney is rostered in fewer than 10% of ESPN standard leagues anyway, but something is going to have to give with Rangers' rotation options soon, so each outing warrants notice. Heaney has yet to go more than five innings in a start, though he has faced some difficult lineups (Braves, Rays, Astros twice). Oddly, he is permitting a .200 batting average to right-handed hitters, while lefties are 4-for-12 against him. LHP Cody Bradford (back soreness) may return soon, and future Hall of Fame RHP Max Scherzer is making a minor league rehab start this week. The Mariners entered Wednesday hitting only .218 versus left-handed pitching, but we cannot recommend Heaney. In Thursday's lone battle of left-handed starting pitchers, and the lone night game, Oakland Athletics LHP Alex Wood faces New York Yankees LHP Nestor Cortes. Wood is really struggling, with nary a quality start to his early-season ledger. One would think this is a great opportunity for struggling Yankees right-handed hitters such as OF Aaron Judge and 2B Gleyber Torres (neither have faced Wood), and it is, but do not shy away from the lefties, either. Wood is permitting an OPS on the wrong side of 1.000 against lefties and right-handed batters! Cortes hasn't permitted a run in two of his past three starts. Go with the Yankees here.

It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday Reliever report

To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning. 

Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. 

Jackson Merrill (SD, SS -- 38%) at Dakota Hudson Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS -- 21%) vs. Randy Vasquez Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF -- 10%) vs. Vasquez Elias Diaz (COL, C -- 11%) vs. Vasquez Jurickson Profar (SD, LF -- 19%) at Hudson Max Kepler (MIN, RF -- 7%) vs. Michael Soroka Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B -- 2%) vs. Vasquez Elehuris Montero (COL, 1B -- 0%) vs. Vasquez Jorge Polanco (SEA, 2B -- 8%) at Andrew Heaney Mitch Garver (SEA, C -- 15%) at Heaney Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Thursday Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS -- 57%) vs. Freddy Peralta Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT, 3B -- 56%) vs. Peralta Michael Busch (CHC, 3B -- 65%) vs. Justin Verlander Lane Thomas (WSH, RF -- 54%) vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS -- 98%) vs. Zack Wheeler Spencer Steer (CIN, 1B -- 96%) vs. Wheeler Wyatt Langford (TEX, LF -- 57%) vs. Luis Castillo Bryan Reynolds (PIT, LF -- 95%) vs. Peralta Ian Happ (CHC, LF -- 78%) vs. Verlander Teoscar Hernandez (LAD, RF -- 85%) at MacKenzie Gore